A Lincoln in the Food Chain: Hungry Maos to Feed

So, I heard a bit on the radio this morning about how China's shrinking economy might or might not affect the US economy. Listening to (or reading about) Economics always leaves me with the same feeling as watching a movie about time travel.

If Biff left the sports almanac in 1955 and it changed the future, why doesn't it change Marty's memories so he's not surprised when he returns to the alternate 1985. Also, if in the alternate 1985, Doc Brown is committed and Marty is attending boarding school, how would the trip to 2015 have been possible, given that they returned the same day they left? If the 2015 trip hadn't been possible, then Old Biff would never have taken the sports almanac to 1955 and the entire alternate history would have been negated, thereby allowing the Old Biff to return to 1955 with the sports almanac, creating the alternate 1985.

Now substitute Biff with Supply and Doc Brown with Demand and 1.21 Gigawatts with Fiscal Policy and you know how I feel about Economics.

However, in the radio bit to which I have formerly alluded, mention was made to Chinese pigs eating American corn.

And I thought, quoi?

At the risk of sounding like Joseph Ellis (I am my own source), we already know that Illinois is #2 in both Field Corn and Field Soybeans. But where do all those beans and corns go?

The Chinese love fried food. Most of the cooking oil in China comes from US soybeans. They buy half of our soybean exports (over $10 billion worth). Great Scott!

Half of the corn grown in Illinois is exported abroad. Most US corn exports go to Japan. China has an expanding middle class, so more people can afford and therefore do demand more pork to sizzle in their soybean oil. The Chinese have something like 400 million pigs (The US weighs in at 60 million) and every one of those curly tailed oinkers likes to munch on Field Corn from the Midwest. China is growing ever more dependent on US corn to support their livestock.

But we got this drought on. Worst one since the Dust Bowl. Dwindling corn and soybean crops in the Midwest have caused prices to jump 30-50% which could in turn cause rising inflation in China.

Then if the yuan falls relative to the dollar, won't that favor Chinese exports over American exports which will then decrease the US GDP? See? That's where I get confused. We can just hope that the winner of this next election has a flying DeLorean with a Mr. Fusion modification. And the ability to make it rain.

Here's what we do know:
1. Most Illinois corn and soybeans are exported to Asia.
2. This drought will hurt everyone for a while. Experts are predicting a steep rise in the prices of meat products in the US in 2013.